TABLE OF CONTENTS

LIST OF FIGURES ……………………………………………………………………………………… v
LIST OF TABLES ……………………………………………………………………………………….. vi
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS …………………………………………………………………………….. vii
ABSTRACT……………………………………………………………………………………… viii
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION …………………………………………………………………… 1
Error and Bias ………………………………………………………………………………………… 2
Belief Perseverance …………………………………………………………………………………. 3
The Power of Confession Evidence …………………………………………………………… 5
Ambiguity ………………………………………………………………………………………… 7
Commitment …………………………………………………………………………………….. 7
Research Overview and Hypotheses ………………………………………………………….. 8
CHAPTER 2. METHOD ………………………………………………………………………………. 10
Power Analysis ………………………………………………………………………………………. 10
Participants…………………………………………………………………………………………….. 10
Design …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 11
Crime Report………………………………………………………………………………………….. 11
Measures ……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 12
Guilt Judgments ………………………………………………………………………………… 12
Perceptions of Impartiality ………………………………………………………………….. 12
Manipulation Check …………………………………………………………………………… 12
Attention Check ………………………………………………………………………………… 13
Suspicion Check………………………………………………………………………………… 13
Scrambled Anagrams …………………………………………………………………………. 14
Procedures ……………………………………………………………………………………………… 14
CHAPTER 3. ANALYSES …………………………………………………………………………… 16
Preliminary Analyses ………………………………………………………………………………. 16
Descriptive Statistics………………………………………………………………………….. 16
Commitment Manipulation Check……………………………………………………….. 16
Confession Timing Manipulation Check ………………………………………………. 16
Attention Check ………………………………………………………………………………… 17
Suspicion Check………………………………………………………………………………… 17
Analytic Plan………………………………………………………………………………………….. 17
Model 1: Total Effect of Confession Timing on Phase 2 Guilt Judgments … 18
Model 2: Belief Perseverance Effect ……………………………………………………. 19
Path a: Confession Effect ……………………………………………………………………. 19
Path b: Judgment Stability ………………………………………………………………….. 20
Path a × b: Belief Perseverance …………………………………………………………… 20
Path c: Adding Confession Evidence and Procedural Effects ………………….. 20
Moderation of Belief Perseverance by Commitment………………………………. 22
Main Analyses ……………………………………………………………………………………….. 22
Model 1: Total Effect of Confession Timing …………………………………………. 22
Model 2: Belief Perseverance Effect ……………………………………………………. 23
Path a: Confession Effect ……………………………………………………………………. 24
Path b: Judgment Stability ………………………………………………………………….. 24
Path a × b: Belief Perseverance …………………………………………………………… 25
Path c: Adding Confession Evidence and Procedural Effects ………………….. 25
Path a × b + c: Total Effect of Confession Evidence ………………………………. 25
Moderation of Belief Perseverance by Commitment………………………………. 26
CHAPTER 4. DISCUSSION …………………………………………………………………………. 27
Belief Perseverance …………………………………………………………………………………. 27
Commitment ………………………………………………………………………………………….. 29
Accountability ………………………………………………………………………………………… 29
Limitations …………………………………………………………………………………………….. 30
Conclusion …………………………………………………………………………………………….. 31
REFERENCES ……………………………………………………………………………………………. 33
APPENDIX A. PHASE 1 CRIME REPORT: CONFESSION EARLY ………………. 45
APPENDIX B. PHASE 1 CRIME REPORT: CONFESSION LATE …………………. 47
APPENDIX C. PHASE 2 CRIME REPORT …………………………………………………… 48
APPENDIX D. GUILT JUDGMENTS …………………………………………………………… 52
APPENDIX E. PERCEPTIONS OF IMPARTIALITY …………………………………….. 53
APPENDIX F. MANIPULATION CHECK ……………………………………………………. 54
APPENDIX G. ATTENTION CHECK…………………………………………………………… 55
APPENDIX H. SUSPICION CHECK…………………………………………………………….. 56
APPENDIX I. SCRAMBLED ANAGRAMS ………………………………………………….. 57
APPENDIX J. INSTITUTIONAL REVIEW BOARD APPROVAL FORM ……….. 58